It is unrealistic to expect NHS England’s 18-week waiting time standard for routine treatment to be achieved by 2024 with current infrastructure and staffing levels according to a new ‘long read’ analysis by The Health Foundation.
The impact of COVID-19 makes this target an even bigger challenge, as capacity to treat patients is reduced through enhanced infection control procedures, the waiting list has itself increased since non-urgent planned care was postponed in April for three months, and additional costs and demand arising from COVID-19 mean the rates of spending growth set out in the NHS Funding Bill in February 2020 will not be sufficient. The Health Foundation predicts a minimum of £560m more per year will be necessary.
If the aim is to meet the 18-week standard by the end of financial year 2023/24, the analysis calculates the NHS needs to treat over 500,000 more patients in each of the next four years.
It is an unprecedented increase in activity, which would have capital funding implications to provide sufficient beds and other facilities. This, and staffing shortfalls, will continue to constrain hospital capacity.
The long read concludes: “Until the health service has the capacity it needs to meet demand – and the support of a sustainable system of social care – a promise to recover 18 weeks within this parliament would be putting the cart before the horse.”
And that is before the impact of COVID-19 is factored in. The reality is that longer waiting times for planned care are likely to be a feature of the NHS in England for several years to come.
‘Returning NHS waiting times to 18 weeks for routine treatment: The scale of the challenge pre-COVID-19’ was written by Anita Charlesworth, Toby Watt and Tim Gardner. Click here for the full long read analysis.
